Welsh Social Care Model


In conjunction with Landman Economics, we've just completed a major piece of work for the Welsh Assembly Government on modelling the finance of social care.

This is the most technically sophisticated model we've ever been involved in; indeed, we believe it to be one of the most complex microsimulation projects ever undertaken anywhere in the world. It uses British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) data to model demand for social care under many possible financing systems for up to 20 years. The projects are made either by ageing the households - increasing the ages of household members and applying estimated probabilities of major events such as retirement, worsening of health and eventually death, or by selectively reweighing the households to match population projections.

The model has an elegant user interface allowing Welsh Government officials to make and analyse their own simulations.

Below is a gallery of screenshots of the model in action.

Thumbnail 00_homepage.png Thumbnail 01_parameters_page.png Thumbnail 02_parameters_page.png Thumbnail 03_parameters_page_care_system.png Thumbnail 04_parameters_page_care_system.png
Thumbnail 05_run_settings.png Thumbnail 06_model_running.png Thumbnail 90_output_page_summary_1.png Thumbnail 91_output_page_summary_2.png Thumbnail 92_output_page_summary_3.png
Thumbnail 94_output_page_popup1.png Thumbnail 95_output_page_ranges.png Thumbnail 96_gain_lose.png Thumbnail 97_budget.png Thumbnail 98_gain_lose1.png
Thumbnail 99_gain_lose2.png Thumbnail 99a_gain_lose3.png

A presentation on the model (June 2014): PDF | Open Document | Powerpoint |

Presentation at Fosdem 2015: PDF | Open Document